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Theo các chuyên gia, nhà quản lý, thị trường bất động sản (BĐS) 6 tháng đầu năm 2018 đã có sự lệnh pha cung cầu rõ nét, nguồn cung căn hộ giá bình dân sụt giảm mạnh trong khi căn hộ cao cấp gia tăng.
Theo ông Lê Hoàng Châu, Chủ tịch Hiệp hội BĐS TP HCM, năm 2017 phân khúc căn hộ cao cấp chiếm 31,3%, trung cấp 31,1%, bình dân 37,6% thì 6 tháng đầu năm nay ngược lại, phân khúc căn hộ cao cấp 41%, trung cấp 39%, bình dân chỉ 19,9% với 1.914 căn hộ.
Ông Trần Tựu, Phó Tổng Giám đốc Tập đoàn Hưng Thịnh, cho rằng nguồn cung căn hộ cao cấp nhiều là do chi phí tăng cao nên sản phẩm đưa ra thị trường phải ở giá cao.
Đông đảo khách hàng tìm hiểu một dự án căn hộ trung bình ở TP HCM
Ông Phan Trường Sơn, Trưởng Phòng Phát triển nhà Sở Xây dựng, lý giải nhiều nguyên nhân dẫn đến sự lệnh pha này, trong đó có việc ngưng chính sách hỗ trợ từ phía nhà nước cho thị trường BĐS. Nguồn cung căn hộ vừa túi tiền ít đi nhưng người dân có nhu cầu mua BĐS giá thấp, phù hợp với túi tiền nên đã chuyển sang mua đất nền, nhận chuyển nhượng quyền sử dụng đất để tự xây nhà.
“Thị trường vừa qua là của nhóm cơ hội, môi giới. Họ đã làm sốt ảo, cụ thể tăng theo tiến độ một phần nhưng tỉ lệ này chỉ 5%, chứ còn tăng hơn 15% thì tôi cho là bất bình thường, là ảo” – ông Sơn nhấn mạnh. Ông Lê Hoàng Châu cũng cho rằng cơn sốt ảo của thị trường đất nền đã cơ bản được kiểm soát, kể cả ở các đặc khu hay khu vực vùng ven TP HCM. “Người đang giữ đất vẫn còn neo giữ ở mức giá cao vì họ vẫn kỳ vọng sẽ có người mua. Tuy nhiên, việc này không thể kéo dài vì nhiều người mua sử dụng vốn vay, sức chịu đựng có giới hạn” – ông Châu nói.
Nói về chu kỳ khủng hoảng 10 năm, các chuyên gia đều khẳng định là sẽ không thể xảy ra bong bóng cho đến năm 2019 nhờ các yếu tố kinh tế vĩ mô cũng như chính sách nhà nước đã tạo điều kiện để thị trường BĐS ổn định, bền vững.
Theo ông Nguyễn Đức Lệnh, Trưởng Phòng Tổng hợp Ngân hàng Nhà nước Chi nhánh TP HCM, tăng trưởng tín dụng TP 6 tháng đầu năm 7,5% trong khi cả nước tăng 7,8%; dư nợ tín dụng BĐS khoảng 10%, cả nước 7,8%. Đây vẫn là mức an toàn. Đồng thời, chính sách tiền tệ tín dụng của Ngân hàng Nhà nước trong 5 năm qua và 6 tháng đầu năm đã tạo điều kiện tốt cho phát triển kinh tế, ổn định thị trường, khuyến nghị các ngân hàng kiểm soát tốt dòng tiền vào BĐS chứ không phải là thắt chặt tiền tệ. Đó là cơ chế tốt cho thị trường BĐS tiêu dùng.
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